Who will win UP election and Impact of UP election in national narrative.

Being Rational here, not being swayed with my sentiments, and my temptation to press NOTA, I will say sp+congress. And with my observations, It also works in favour of national growth.

Let me break my answers here in two parts.

• Why SP+Congress will win.

1. Caste politics: UP election is heavily dominated by caste politics. And this factor works against BJP, whose core vote bank is upper caste Hindus. UP has more than 50% population of SC ST and OBC. These communities aren't going to vote BJP, because of recent attacks on Dalits. Muslims by default aren't going to vote BJP. And this time SP has been very careful in ticket distribution. So the votes don't get distributed.
2. Economy: UP economy purely runs on cash. Forget about digital India, half of the state doesn't even get 12 hours of electricity. And they suffered terribly in demonetization.
3. No CM face for BJP.
4. UP BJP is flaring with communal elements, like the rise of Yogi AdityaNath.
5. Governance of neighboring state Haryana & MP. Both are run by BJP which is marred with corruption, unemployment, and communal clashes. Haryana for the first time in last two decade saw a riot. Vyapam scam in MP is known to all.

• In my above answer, i didn't mention the pros of SP+congress because there isn't any. This UP election is choosing the lesser of the two devils. And as I said, it will work in favor of India. Let me explain this part.

1. The balance of power. It will be a breather for opposition. They will get some credibility in Parliament, who are at present laughing stock.
2. Check the arrogance of BJP. There is too much of arrogance, a sense of invincibility in the ruling party, that they are beyond Parliament and can get away with anything, and can't be questioned or criticized.
3. Opportunity for BJP to get their acts right. Instead of deviating to redundant topics like beef and jingoism, work on the development plan, and most importantly engage in Parliament debate, not on unidirectional man-ki-baat i.e. provide a detailed plan for their growth model not jumlas & one liner.
4. Chisel the relationship between voter and the leader. At present, it is like a ruler and their bhakti. Both need to shed their fascination and come back to the ground, accept that the relationship is mutual, rulers can't take voters for granted, as citizens used to with Congress. And nobody is interested in knowing the history of Congress from BJP leaders, everybody knows that, and that's why Congress is 49 seat party.

Thanks

Abhijeet